Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

DEN

62%

WAS

38%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–26

Winner DEN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 WAS
• Win percentage−0.2 DEN
• Rushing defense−0.2 DEN
• Scoring differential−0.2 DEN