Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

ATL

44%

NO

56%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–10

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.3 NO
• Home field+0.3 NO
• Scoring−0.1 ATL
• Rest+0.1 NO