Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

KC

46%

DEN

54%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–22

Winner DEN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.3 KC
• Home field+0.3 DEN
• Passing efficiency+0.1 DEN
• Turnovers+0.1 DEN