Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

JAX

52%

HOU

48%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–36

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.3 HOU
• QB completion %+0.2 HOU
• Scoring differential+0.1 HOU