Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

IND

53%

LAC

47%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–24

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 LAC
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 IND
• Scoring−0.2 IND
• Interception rate+0.1 LAC