Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

KC

51%

LAC

49%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

27%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–27

Winner LAC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.3 LAC
• Win percentage−0.1 KC
• Passing efficiency−0.1 KC
• Interception rate+0.1 LAC