Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

BAL

55%

BUF

45%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

30%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–41

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 BUF
• Rushing offense−0.2 BAL
• Passing efficiency+0.2 BUF
• Offensive touchdowns−0.1 BAL