Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

WAS

56%

DAL

44%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–19

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DAL
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 WAS
• Scoring−0.3 WAS
• Scoring differential−0.1 WAS