Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

KC

48%

PIT

52%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–10

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 PIT
• Interception rate+0.1 PIT
• Passing efficiency−0.1 KC
• Passing offense+0.1 PIT