Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

ATL

23%

WAS

77%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

76%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–30

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 WAS
• Home field+0.6 WAS
• QB completion %−0.4 ATL
• Scoring+0.3 WAS