New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

NE

18%

BUF

82%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

79%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–24

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.8 BUF
• Home field+0.6 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.4 BUF
• Passing efficiency−0.3 NE