Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

WAS

59%

NO

41%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–19

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NO
• Scoring−0.2 WAS
• Rest−0.2 WAS
• QB yards/attempt−0.1 WAS