Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

IND

50%

NE

50%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–24

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NE
• Scoring−0.3 IND
• QB completion %−0.3 IND
• Passing efficiency+0.2 NE