Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

HOU

73%

JAX

27%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–20

Winner HOU. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.9 HOU
• Home field+0.6 JAX
• Scoring differential−0.2 HOU
• Scoring−0.2 HOU