Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

KC

43%

BUF

57%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–30

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 BUF
• Scoring+0.3 BUF
• Rushing defense−0.2 KC
• Interception rate+0.1 BUF