New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

NE

25%

CHI

75%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–3

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 CHI
• Home field+0.6 CHI
• Scoring+0.4 CHI
• QB completion %−0.3 NE