Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

BUF

76%

IND

24%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

71%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–20

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.8 BUF
• Home field+0.6 IND
• Scoring−0.4 BUF
• QB completion %+0.3 IND