Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

ATL

53%

NO

47%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–20

Winner NO. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.8 ATL
• Home field+0.6 NO
• QB completion %+0.3 NO
• Passing efficiency+0.1 NO