Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

TB

39%

KC

61%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–30

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 KC
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 TB
• Rushing defense+0.2 KC
• Scoring−0.2 TB