Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

ATL

36%

TB

64%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–26

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 TB
• Scoring+0.3 TB
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 TB
• Passing defense−0.2 ATL