New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

NE

45%

JAX

55%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–32

Winner JAX. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 JAX
• Scoring+0.4 JAX
• QB completion %−0.3 NE
• Passing efficiency−0.2 NE