Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Before kickoff

HOU

52%

GB

48%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

22–24

Winner GB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 GB
• QB yards/attempt−0.5 HOU
• QB completion %+0.2 GB
• Interception rate−0.2 HOU