Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

BAL

57%

TB

43%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–31

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 TB
• Scoring−0.2 BAL
• Rushing defense−0.2 BAL
• Interception rate−0.2 BAL