Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

TB

43%

NO

57%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

51–27

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NO
• Scoring+0.2 NO
• Interception rate−0.1 TB
• Scoring differential+0.1 NO