Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

JAX

54%

CHI

46%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–35

Winner CHI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential+0.2 CHI
• Passing defense+0.2 CHI
• Interception rate−0.1 JAX
• Scoring+0.1 CHI