Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

TB

59%

ATL

41%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–36

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ATL
• Interception rate−0.2 TB
• Scoring−0.2 TB
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 TB