Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

IND

31%

JAX

69%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–37

Winner JAX. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.6 JAX
• Interception rate+0.3 JAX
• QB completion %−0.3 IND