Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

DAL

58%

PIT

42%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–17

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 PIT
• Scoring−0.5 DAL
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 DAL
• Rushing defense+0.2 PIT