Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

BUF

56%

HOU

44%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–23

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 HOU
• Scoring−0.4 BUF
• Scoring differential−0.3 BUF
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 HOU