Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

WAS

39%

ARI

61%

Predicted winner

ARI

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

42–14

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ARI
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 WAS
• Scoring differential+0.2 ARI
• Passing efficiency+0.1 ARI