Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

PIT

54%

IND

46%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

45%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–27

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• Interception rate−0.4 PIT
• Rushing defense−0.3 PIT
• Scoring+0.2 IND