New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Before kickoff

NE

21%

SF

79%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

13–30

Winner SF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.8 SF
• QB yards/attempt+0.7 SF
• Home field+0.6 SF
• Passing efficiency−0.5 NE