Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Before kickoff

DEN

31%

NYJ

69%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–9

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NYJ
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 NYJ
• Interception rate+0.1 NYJ
• Rest+0.1 NYJ