Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

WAS

37%

CIN

63%

Predicted winner

CIN

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–33

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CIN
• Scoring differential+0.2 CIN
• Interception rate+0.1 CIN
• Passing defense+0.1 CIN