New England Patriots at New York Jets

Before kickoff

NE

39%

NYJ

62%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

47%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

3–24

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NYJ
• Rushing defense−0.3 NE
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 NYJ
• Scoring+0.1 NYJ