Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

KC

62%

ATL

38%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

47%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

22–17

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ATL
• Scoring−0.3 KC
• Scoring differential−0.2 KC
• QB yards/attempt−0.1 KC