Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

CHI

47%

IND

53%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

41%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–21

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• QB yards/attempt+0.6 IND
• Rushing defense−0.4 CHI
• Passing efficiency−0.2 CHI