Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

CHI

35%

HOU

65%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

13–19

Winner HOU. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 HOU
• Home field+0.6 HOU
• Passing efficiency−0.3 CHI
• Interception rate+0.2 HOU