Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

PIT

46%

ATL

54%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

29%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

18–10

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ATL
• Interception rate−0.2 PIT
• Turnovers+0.1 ATL
• Passing defense+0.1 ATL