New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

NE

32%

CIN

68%

Predicted winner

CIN

Confidence

39%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–10

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CIN
• Scoring+0.4 CIN
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 CIN
• Interception rate+0.2 CIN