Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

HOU

50%

IND

50%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

26%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–27

Winner HOU. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 HOU
• Rushing defense−0.2 HOU
• Passing efficiency+0.2 IND