New York Jets at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

NYJ

34%

NE

66%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–3

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.8 NE
• Home field+0.6 NE
• Rushing defense+0.3 NE
• Passing defense−0.1 NYJ