Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

HOU

37%

IND

63%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–19

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• QB yards/attempt+0.5 IND
• Rushing defense−0.2 HOU
• QB completion %−0.2 HOU