Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

DAL

76%

WAS

24%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

75%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–10

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• Scoring−0.5 DAL
• Scoring differential−0.4 DAL
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 DAL