Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

BUF

43%

MIA

57%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–14

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 MIA
• Passing efficiency−0.2 BUF
• QB yards/attempt+0.1 MIA
• Rushing defense+0.1 MIA