San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

SF

74%

WAS

26%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

74%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–10

Winner SF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• Scoring−0.5 SF
• QB yards/attempt−0.5 SF
• Scoring differential−0.4 SF