Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

ATL

32%

CHI

68%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

69%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–37

Winner CHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 CHI
• Home field+0.6 CHI
• QB completion %−0.2 ATL
• Interception rate−0.2 ATL