Washington Commanders at New York Jets

Before kickoff

WAS

63%

NYJ

37%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–30

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−1.0 WAS
• Home field+0.6 NYJ
• Scoring−0.3 WAS
• Passing defense+0.3 NYJ