New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

NE

33%

DEN

67%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–23

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DEN
• Rushing defense−0.4 NE
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 DEN
• Scoring+0.3 DEN