Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

IND

51%

ATL

49%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–29

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ATL
• Scoring−0.2 IND
• Points allowed−0.1 IND
• Rushing defense+0.1 ATL